Our ridiculous Westminster system means the date of the general election is in the hands of the Prime Minister alone. She could announce that she has just seen the Governor-General and set a date at this very minute. This means a great deal of speculation as the last possible date of 24 September draws near. The Electoral Commission needs 6-8 weeks to organise a "snap" election, but a "normal" election should only take 4 weeks (always being on a Saturday).
Today's date + 4 weeks (min) = 28 May is the earliest possible date.
The Crown's budget is set down for introduction on the 19th of May and will be passed sometime in June. Either they will announce right after it is introduced (25 June option) or wait till it passes (16 July+ option).
Labour Party President, the thuggish Mike Williams, has boasted that he will be the one setting the date and he wouldn't want to go earlier than September - which is of course a load of smokescreen bollocks - they will not risk leaving it that late. They are not complacent.
Our Glorious Leader insists that they will go "a full term" which is actually up on 27 July. Like last time they will go as early as practical - less chance of Tamahereisms staining the good linen.
Economically bouyant, though underlyingly weak and propped up by immigration, the only way for the economy at the moment is down, with the Reserve Bank hinting another rate rise may occur later in the year.
All Black tests against the Lions occur on 2 and 9 July, NZ Maori v. Lions on 11 June, AB's v. Boks on 27 August, and AB's v. Aussies on 3 September. Traditionally tests and an election do not mix... the "Mungo no think two things at same time" idea, ie. the big parties' key constituents. If we win the series on 9 July they could announce the election in the midst of the unbounded fervour of patriotism (6 August+ option).
Labour is ready now whilst the others are still farting around.
TV ad space is supposedly booked solid for the next few months so that will favour Labour as the ad spend on their dodgy Families Commission and Working for Families etc. is filling that space, as the lolly scramble budget will fill the news space.
As time draws closer to September the effectiveness and advantage of surprise diminishes.
Politicians want to be put out of their misery and stress sooner rather than later - watch their agonising when the results on the night are delayed by even half an hour.
So with all that in mind let us open a notional book.
There are now 17 possible dates.
DATE.......ODDS.......(relevant event)...... PUNTERS
4 June.....200-1 (Queen's Birthday Weekend)
11 June....66-1 (Maori v. Lions)
18 June....50-1 (Otago v. Lions)
2 July......33-1 (NZ v. Lions)
9 July......33-1 (NZ v. Lions)
23 July.....5-1 SageNZ
, John Armstrong?
30 July.....6-1 (3 years after last election) John Armstrong?
6 August...6-1 (NZ v. SA, Capetown)
13 August..6-1 (NZ v. Aust, Sydney)
27 August..20-1 (NZ v. SA)
3 Sept......20-1 (NZ v. Aust)
17 Sept.....15-1 Greg Stephens
, Vernon Small?
(Names of punters making their predictions may be added - please leave your prediction in the comments section.)
All odds subject to change. No refunds.
NEWSFLASH: From Centrebet
in Australia to my enquiry as to will they operate betting on our election:
"we will only cover the Federal(National). Will not be available before the end of next week.
Updates will follow. Thoughtful speculation from the Greens with other links here.